Trade, Timing, and Transformation in Markham Real Estate

Trade, Timing, and Transformation in Markham Real Estate

As Canada and China reach a new milestone in trade relations, many people expect immediate economic results. A friend recently asked me whether more Chinese companies moving into Canada would quickly push housing prices higher, driven by incoming executives and workers.

My answer was no, at least not immediately. The number of those eligible buyers remains small, and in real estate, the impact is rarely instant. It appears first as direction, then as pressure, and only later as visible growth. Markham today is a perfect example of this transition.

On the surface, the city is clearly gaining momentum. The Honda Indy is moving from downtown Toronto to Markham Centre in 2026, bringing more than 150,000 visitors and national exposure. At the same time, renewed China–Canada trade is reopening business channels that have historically flowed directly through Markham's tech, logistics, and manufacturing ecosystem. These two developments are not directly connected, but together they point to a shift in how Markham is positioned in the region.

At the same time, new city data shows something many residents already feel: Markham's growth is uneven and delayed. The city's population is roughly 30,000 below earlier projections, and employment is about 45,000 jobs short of what had been forecast for 2026. On paper, that looks like a problem, but the more important question is why the gap exists.

Markham hasn't slowed approvals, it has accelerated them. The city's intensification rate reached 87% in 2024, far above its own target, and nearly all new housing completions were high-density condos and townhouses. The issue isn't planning. The issue is timing. Thousands of approved units are still sitting on paper because financing, interest rates, and infrastructure sequencing have pushed construction back. Growth is effectively queued in approvals, not yet visible in population numbers, which makes the city feel stuck even though it's actually preparing for the next phase.

This is also why the Honda Indy relocation matters more than it looks. Major events don't move unless a city has the infrastructure, transit, and density to support them. Hosting a national race in Markham Centre forces coordination between transit, roads, hotels, and downtown design. That kind of work doesn't disappear after race weekend, it permanently raises the city's capacity. In a very real sense, the event pulls future growth forward before the numbers catch up.

Trade works the same way. Renewed China and Canada trade does not immediately translate into home purchases, but it does increase business travel, regional headquarters activity, professional migration, and rental demand. Markham has always been the first place where these flows show up because the business networks, language, and cultural infrastructure already exist. This is why commercial vacancies are already declining even while population growth lags, jobs always arrive before residents.

There is another risk people don't talk about enough. Housing supply works like a factory. If you underestimate demand and don't build inventory early, you can never catch up when real demand arrives. If employment grows but rental prices rise too quickly and housing stock isn't ready, workers simply won't settle here. They'll commute from far away or choose other cities, and Markham will miss the opportunity that growth creates. Timing, in that sense, is not a detail, it's the entire strategy.

This is also why renewed China-Canada trade is more meaningful for Markham than for many other cities. Markham already has one of the highest concentrations of Chinese residents, entrepreneurs, and business networks in Canada. Trade expands fastest where trust, capital, and relationships already exist. That gives Markham a structural advantage that doesn't show up in short-term statistics but becomes obvious over time in job creation and housing demand.

From a real estate perspective, Markham is not in a boom, but it is not stalling either. It is in what I would call a compression phase. Approvals are ahead of construction, infrastructure is ahead of occupancy, demand is forming before supply appears, and visibility is rising before prices respond. This phase always feels uncomfortable because residents see disruption without payoff and investors see potential without momentum. That's normal for cities moving into a higher tier.

When interest rates stabilize and projects begin to move, the gap between approvals and reality can close quickly, and prices usually adjust faster than people expect. Condos and rentals near Markham Centre tend to respond first, detached homes in strong school zones follow, and land or redevelopment opportunities usually move last, but most sharply.

Markham today is not underperforming. It is loading the next cycle.

Real estate rewards people who understand timing, not headlines. And right now, Markham's timing is quietly aligning, even if the numbers haven't caught up yet.




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