Is It a Pullback or the Start of a Bear Market? What It Means for Real Estate in Markham

Is It a Pullback or the Start of a Bear Market? What It Means for Real Estate in Markham

The recent turbulence in global equity markets has many wonders: is this just a short-term pullback, or the beginning of a deeper bear market? While this question dominates financial headlines, its implications are already rippling through local property markets like Markham, where real estate activity is closely tied to interest rates, buyer sentiment, and broader economic signals.

This spring, Markham’s real estate market has mirrored the weather, cool and damp, with a prolonged chill replacing the typical seasonal rebound. Buyers are still actively searching for the right home and are willing to bid when a property checks all their boxes. However, with more listings hitting the market, they feel less pressure to engage in bidding wars and are increasingly content to wait and see. Opinions remain divided on where the market will be heading to. The optimistic view is that the spring surge has merely been delayed, with pent-up demand expected to surface in May or June. Others caution that rising inventory and weakening buyer sentiment could lead to further price declines. Both sides raise valid points, but one emerging consensus is clear: escalating U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports may put additional strain on the economy in the months ahead.

U.S. policy is now firmly centered on reshoring manufacturing back to the home country to reduce reliance on imports. The shift poses a serious threat to Canadian exporters, particularly manufacturers heavily dependent on U.S. demand. In Ontario, cities like Windsor, Oshawa, Ingersoll, Guelph, and Brantford, all reliant on auto and parts production, face growing risks of job losses.  The disruption won't stop at factory floors. Upstream suppliers and downstream distributors across the province, including in hubs like Kitchener-Waterloo and London, are also vulnerable. As industrial activity slows, the economic shock is set to ripple through the Greater Toronto Area, weakening consumer confidence and adding new headwinds to an already cautious real estate market.

That uncertainty is already weighing on the GTA. At present, mortgage rates remain elevated, with the Bank of Canada keeping the overnight rate unchanged. BMO forecasts a modest 75 basis point cut by the end of 2025, well short of the substantial drop many buyers were hoping for. While some still expect deeper rate cuts, that scenario now seems likely only if the trade war escalates to the point of triggering a Canadian recession. Ironically, a prolonged trade conflict could raise the cost of Canadian goods, stoke inflation, and ultimately compel the Bank of Canada to halt or even reverse any rate cuts. For now, borrowing remains expensive, particularly for buyers eyeing detached homes or real estate investments, where larger loan amounts make high interest rates more painful.

In York Region, the housing market is showing clear signs of softening. Inventory continues to grow, and homes are staying on the market longer. Buyers are more cautious, and sellers no longer enjoy the frenzied market conditions they had during the pandemic boom. While domestic political uncertainty has eased post-election, the larger drag on buyer confidence comes from global instability and concerns over an economic slowdown.

That said, Markham remains one of the more resilient markets in the GTA. The city continues to attract financially secure newcomers, many of whom place a strong emphasis on education, community, and long-term quality of life. Neighborhoods like Unionville, Wismer, and Berczy remain popular among buyers with stable finances and a long-term perspective. However, the speculative side of the market, particularly luxury and preconstruction segments, may face greater pressure if broader economic headwinds persist.

This is not a market for quick wins. As with investing in equities, trying to time the exact bottom in real estate rarely pays off. The smarter approach is to focus on fundamentals: location, house layout, home condition, rental potential, and how pricing fits into your long-term financial strategy.

Whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a longer bear cycle, one thing is certain: volatility has returned! For buyers and sellers in Markham, success in 2025 will depend on strategy, discipline, and the guidance of experienced local professionals. In a market like this, informed decisions matter more than ever.



WhatsApp Chat