Short-Term Pain on Markham Housing Prices Amid Federal Cut on Immigration

Short-Term Pain on Markham Housing Prices Amid Federal Cut on Immigration

Markham’s housing market embodies a complex interplay of demographic growth, shifting immigration policies, and persistent supply challenges. Recent federal announcements to reduce immigration targets in the near term, including a drop from 485,000 permanent resident admissions in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, are expected to temper housing demand temporarily. Despite these adjustments, Markham’s population is projected to surpass 600,000 by 2051, emphasizing the city’s long-term growth and resilience.

While reduced immigration targets may slow demand for condominiums and rental properties in the short term, broader trends ensure Markham’s housing market remains competitive. The rise of remote work, suburban living, and sustained demand driven by long-term immigration have shaped a resilient housing market. However, supply constraints—including limited land availability and a persistent lack of affordable housing—continue to drive prices upward, ensuring strong competition even amid policy adjustments.

In 2023, the affordability threshold for homeownership in Markham was set at $511,873, marking the maximum price considered affordable for households earning below the 60th percentile of income. However, newly constructed homes were priced significantly above this benchmark, and less than 2% of resale homes in the past three months sold within this range. This affordability gap has left middle-income families and first-time buyers priced out of the market. The absence of new affordable ownership homes since 2021 further underscores a growing housing crisis. While affordable rental housing has made some progress, the dream of homeownership remains elusive for many, pushing residents to either rent or relocate to more affordable areas outside Markham.

The pandemic and advancements in technology have further reshaped Markham’s housing dynamics. The work-from-home trend accelerated a migration of young professionals and families from Toronto’s downtown core to suburban communities like Markham. These individuals, often working in knowledge-based industries such as technology, finance, and healthcare, were drawn by top-rated elementary and secondary schools, larger homes, green spaces, and family-friendly amenities. This shift has fueled housing demand among younger demographics and reinforced Markham’s appeal as a desirable place to live and work.

Short-term adjustments to immigration policies are likely to moderate housing demand, particularly in the rental and condominium markets. Cuts to temporary resident admissions, including international students and temporary workers, will reduce demand in investor-driven condo developments. The impact is already being felt locally, as Seneca Polytechnic announced the temporary closure of its Markham Campus in Buttonville community due to declining international student enrollment, further softening demand in the rental market. Rising rental vacancy rates could soften condo prices in the near term. In contrast, freehold detached homes are expected to retain steady demand. These properties, valued for their spacious layouts and suitability for multi-generational households, remain a cornerstone of Markham’s housing market. Limited land availability for new developments ensures that detached home prices will remain stable or continue to appreciate over the long term.

Despite these temporary shifts, Markham’s housing market is well-positioned for robust long-term growth. Transit-oriented developments, particularly near high-order transit hubs like the VIVA Bus Rapid Transit and GO Train stations, will drive demand. With 56% of new residential units in 2023 built within urban areas, Markham’s commitment to intensification is creating vibrant, high-density neighborhoods. As hybrid work models become the norm, condominiums near transit hubs will increasingly attract professionals and downsizers, solidifying their value over time.

By 2051, Markham’s combination of steady population growth, diverse housing needs, and strong demand for family-friendly neighborhoods will ensure a thriving housing market. Freehold detached homes will continue to command premium prices due to their limited supply, while condominiums will cater to a broader demographic, including young professionals, retirees, and newcomers.

Although reduced immigration targets may temper housing demand in the short term, Markham’s housing market is defined by its adaptability. Long-term economic immigration and a persistent housing shortage will keep prices strong, maintaining the city’s status as one of the Greater Toronto Area’s most desirable communities.



WhatsApp Chat