Markham's Real Estate Reset: A Deep Dive into Local Market Shifts Since 2022

Markham's Real Estate Reset: A Deep Dive into Local Market Shifts Since 2022

Since early 2022, Markham has experienced one of the significant real estate corrections in recent history, reflecting broader trends seen across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The downturn, driven by rising interest rates, inflation, and changes to immigration and housing policy, has affected Markham’s communities in very different ways, some remain resilient, others are still adjusting.

Historically, Canada has seen three major real estate corrections over the past four decades: the 1989 crash (over 12% drop), the 2008 global financial crisis (8% drop), and the 2017 policy-driven slowdown triggered by foreign buyer taxes and mortgage stress tests. In early 2017, Markham homes saw a steep decline due to the foreign buyer tax but rebounded later. However, the current cycle, which began in February 2022, has been deeper and more complex, with national prices falling over 15% and over 20% in prime areas like Toronto and Vancouver. Markham, particularly high-priced and investor-heavy neighborhoods, has not been immune.

By spring 2025, the overall price of detached homes in Markham has fallen back to roughly September 2021 levels. But each community tells a different story, for instance, wismer has fallen back to around February 2021 pricing; Unionville prices have reverted to pre-March 2021 levels, excluding the short-lived 2017 price surge; Markville, South Unionville, Berczy, and Milliken Mills East are now priced around August 2021 levels; Cachet has returned to September 2021 pricing.

While some of these areas briefly rebounded in late 2023, prices have since fallen again, pushing values closer to their cycle lows. Buyers are left wondering whether to wait or take advantage of this potential window.

Some communities in Markham, such as Berczy, have remained relatively stable due to strong school zones and end-user demand. Meanwhile, newer communities like Wismer and Box Grove have seen mixed results: homes in these areas surged in value during the 2020-2021 boom but are now facing pricing corrections as many purchases were heavily leveraged. In contrast, outer or less established communities with high investor concentration and limited transit access, such as parts of Cornell have seen slower absorption.

The challenge is multifaceted. Many families who purchased during the 2021-2022 peak are now underwater on their mortgages, particularly in newer subdivisions. Buyers are facing higher borrowing costs, with fixed mortgage rates above 4% and variable rates even higher. Younger households, especially those relying on family assistance, are now declining down payment help due to unsustainable carrying costs. Rental yields often do not cover mortgage, tax, and maintenance expenses, rendering many investment properties cash-flow negative. Power-of-sale listings in Markham are also on the rise, particularly among over-leveraged investors who now face closing on significantly devalued pre-construction properties in Toronto.

Across Canada, consumer confidence remains low. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dipped to 41.5 in April, well below the neutral 50 mark, indicating contraction. Even among households with strong incomes, affordability is strained. For instance, a couple earning $150,000 may find themselves with just $1 left at the end of the month after mortgage payments.

Investor activity has diminished significantly in Markham, as elsewhere. With few exceptions, holding a property no longer offers reliable cash flow. Communities that once attracted wealthy investor demand, such as Cachet and Angus Glen, are now seeing fewer transactions and longer days on market. Chinese capital outflows have also slowed, as economic uncertainty in China reduces the inflow of overseas funds that once supported Markham’s higher-end segments.

Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to remain soft. Most analysts agree that unless interest rates drop substantially, price pressures will persist. Any meaningful recovery may have to wait until 2026, when economic conditions stabilize and immigration patterns potentially resume. Even then, recovery will likely be uneven. Established communities with walkability, transit access, and top schools, like Unionville and Markville, may recover faster. In contrast, peripheral or oversupplied neighborhoods may continue to lag.

One key takeaway: the era of highly leveraged real estate speculation is over. Markham homeowners and investors must adjust expectations. For those holding multiple properties with little rental coverage, deleveraging may be the only option. In some areas, property values may not return to their 2022 peaks for over a decade.

That said, there are opportunities. End-users looking to upgrade can now access properties in top-tier neighborhoods that were once out of reach. For example, a home that would’ve cost $2.4M during the peak might now sell for $2.1M or less. Buyers who sold during the peak and are re-entering the market now can gain significant value.

For long-term investors, attention should turn to multi-unit properties, legal duplexes, or walk-out basements with separate entrances. These offer more stable rental income and diversification. Location will be more critical than ever, central west side of Markham, with its schools, community infrastructure, and transit, will continue to outperform more speculative outlying areas.

Ultimately, Markham’s real estate market is in a reset phase. For residents, investors, and aspiring homeowners, the key to navigating this market lies in understanding which communities are growing, which are stable, and which are still in decline, and identifying where real opportunities still exist.



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