Markham Real Estate Outlook: Where Are We in the Cycle—and What Should Buyers and Sellers Do Now?

Markham Real Estate Outlook: Where Are We in the Cycle—and What Should Buyers and Sellers Do Now?

The real estate market across the Greater Toronto Area, including Markham, has been anything but rosy in recent months. Data shows that home sales in February 2025 were at their lowest level in the past decade, and condo sales were particularly sluggish, with an average of just four units sold per day in some areas. It's a pace that’s hard to believe in a city that once saw bidding wars as the norm.

Meanwhile, the number of bank-forced home sales (power of sale) is rising dramatically. From 94 cases in the second half of 2023 to over 550 at the end of 2024, early 2025 continues such similarly high levels. These numbers paint a sobering picture of the pressures facing homeowners.

With the market this quiet, many real estate agents have left the industry entirely. But for those still standing, particularly those focused on residential resale and move-up buyers, there’s still opportunity, because housing isn’t just an investment. It’s a necessity.

The Emerging Threat: Could a Trade War Hit Housing Next?

Beyond local factors, there’s a growing concern on the horizon: the risk of a trade war between major global economies, including the U.S. and China.

If such tensions escalate, many economists warn of a wave of job losses, especially in sectors tied to exports, technology, and manufacturing. For Markham, where many households depend on stable white-collar and tech-related employment, a sharp decline in job security could quickly spill into the real estate market.

  • Homeowners may hesitate to upgrade or even downsize.
  • Investors could retreat even further from the market.
  • Demand for both purchases and rentals may drop, especially if consumer confidence declines.

While it’s too early to predict the full impact, the possibility of a trade war adds another layer of uncertainty to a market already under pressure. Buyers and sellers alike should stay informed and work closely with professionals who can help assess the risks and pivot quickly when needed.

 

 

Three years into the downturn now, are we out of woods?

Some are comparing today’s market to the 1989 real estate crash, which took six years to recover. The current downturn began around February 2022, marking three full years of declining prices and transaction volumes.

While there are similarities, both downturns were triggered by sharp interest rate hikes and occurred in high-debt, high-inflation environments. There are also key differences:

  • In 1989, developers built homes using bank financing and sold completed properties. When sales stopped, banks were left holding the bag, resulting in systemic financial risk.
  • Today, developers sell pre-construction units first, and banks only release funds when 70% of the units are sold. That means the risk is now passed to individual buyers, not the financial system. While this shift protects the economy overall, it places more pressure on everyday investors.

So, this is more of a market correction than a crash. The downturn is painful but unlikely to last as long as 1989’s cycle.

Where Are We Now in the Market Cycle?

Real estate is a slow-moving asset. The market takes time to absorb changes in interest rates and policy. Generally, it takes 6–8 weeks for a policy shift to translate into market activity.

Right now, investors are mostly sitting on the sidelines, watching and waiting. But for first-time buyers and families looking to upgrade, this could be an ideal time to make a move.

Why? Because we’re in what I call the “triple blessing” stage:

  1. High inventory: You no longer need to settle for whatever’s available.
  2. Not rushing to purchase: Buyers can now explore neighborhoods, compare listings, and negotiate without pressure.
  3. Sellers are motivated: In today’s market, buyers have bargaining power.

This kind of environment is rare in the GTA, especially in Markham, where desirable neighborhoods often move quickly.

What Kind of Homes Are Worth Watching in Markham?

In the next two years, I believe we’ll see little appreciation in detached homes priced between $1M and $1.5M, especially those in good school zones and established family neighborhoods. These homes are:

  • Typically owner-occupied, not investor-owned.
  • Often purchased for long-term family use, not speculation.
  • High in livability, with practical layouts and safe communities.

Two groups of buyers will drive this trend:

  • First-time homeowners who want a turnkey property near amenities and public transit.
  • Move-up buyers looking to upgrade from a smaller home to a larger detached or semi.

What Should You Look for When Choosing a Home?

Here are a few principles I share with my clients:

  1. Community First, Look for neighborhoods with:
  • Higher average incomes and education levels.
  • Strong school catchments, but not just based on EQAO scores, also look for overall community investment in education.
  1.  Avoid key deficiencies:
  • Stay away from homes on major roads, near fire stations, or beside hydro lines.
  • Be cautious of irregular lots or homes that back onto commercial developments.
  • Check if it’s a corner lot as many have no backyard or reduced privacy.
  1. Home inspections:

When viewing homes, don’t just look at the staging and renovation. Also check up:

  • Foundation and drainage, Avoid homes with large trees within 3 meters of the house (roots can cause issues).
  • Mechanical systems, Go down to the basement and check the HVAC, water tank (tankless is a plus), and whether there's proper drainage for condensation.
  • Floor plans, Avoid homes with lots of small steps between rooms (a safety and energy efficiency concern).
  • Natural light and practicality, Bright rooms are a bonus, but too many windows can mean higher energy costs.

Buyer Strategy in Today’s Market

Here’s how to succeed:

  • Always shortlist multiple homes (e.g., top 2 choices) so you can negotiate with confidence.
  • Don’t get hung up on seller expectations, your benchmark is the past 3 months of neighborhood sales, not the seller’s emotional attachment.
  • Be prepared:
    • Have your deposit and financing ready.
    • Review title and property reports before offering.
    • Communicate with the listing agent to learn the seller’s timeline and expectations.

And when making an offer, try to be firm but fair. A well-reasoned offer, backed by readiness and research, gives you leverage.

Final Thoughts: Bad News for Some Can Be Good News for Others

With over a million Canadian mortgages set to renew this year, many at much higher interest rates. Some homeowners may be forced to sell. For buyers, that means more opportunities to find great homes at reasonable prices.

As always, the value of a great real estate agent is in helping you see clearly through the noise, protecting your interests and guiding you through what is, for most, the biggest purchase of their lives.

Need help navigating the Markham real estate market in 2025?
  Let’s talk strategy. Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, or trying to time your entry. I'll help you make a smart, confident decision.

 



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