Markham Real Estate: Cycles, Resilience, and the Cost of Waiting

Markham Real Estate: Cycles, Resilience, and the Cost of Waiting

The conversation around real estate often shifts with the market’s mood. When prices climb, people warn of bubbles. When prices dip, they declare that the price will go down forever. In reality, these reactions reveal less about the housing market and more about human nature, especially the psychology of timing, fear, and regret.


In Markham, this pattern is easy to observe. The market has gone through several adjustments since 2016, but beneath the surface, the fundamentals remain remarkably steady. Families continue to form, immigration remains high, and supply of low-rise housing continues to fall behind. These are not short-term trends; they’re structural forces that shape how the market behaves over time.


Many people like to say that “the real estate dividend is over.” History shows otherwise. If we look back to the last few major housing slowdowns in Canada, in the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the current cycle, the story is nearly identical. Each began with inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and pessimistic headlines. Yet every single one ended the same way: rates stabilized, affordability returned, and prices recovered. The cycle never truly disappears; it only pauses until demand rebuilds.


In Markham, that demand is not theoretical, it’s visible. The city attracts a consistent mix of professionals, young families, and new immigrants who place a high value on education, community, and stability. Every generation that settles here creates its own housing wave. The first comes when individuals move out and buy their starter home; the second arrives when they upgrade for family space or school districts. These two waves repeat again and again, overlapping with new immigrant demand. It’s the overlap that keeps Markham resilient even in national downturns.


We also have to look at the supply side. Over the past few years, government policy has shifted significant funding toward purpose-built rental housing. While this helps renters in the short term, it pulls financing, labour, and materials away from traditional for-sale developments. The result is predictable: fewer new townhouses, semis, and detached homes, especially in established areas like Unionville and Cache, where land is already scarce. When construction slows, the pipeline of future listings shrinks, setting up the next upward swing in prices once confidence returns.


Monetary conditions add another layer to the story. Real estate is, in part, a monetary phenomenon, influenced by the availability and cost of credit. Over time, the money supply expands to match economic growth, and a portion of that liquidity inevitably finds its way into assets like housing. It’s why long-term property values rise even through multiple rate cycles. Inflation can temporarily distort the numbers, but the underlying principle doesn’t change: as long as the economy grows and supply remains limited, property values adjust upward over time.


Of course, the most powerful driver is still human demand. People don’t buy homes because of charts; they buy because of life events, marriage, children, parents moving in, a new job closer to the 404 corridor. Those decisions are emotional but predictable, and they create continuous housing pressure in places like Markham. Even in periods when borrowing costs are high, the desire for stability and ownership doesn’t vanish. It waits.


We also can’t ignore the social dynamic. Each generation has early movers, the first to buy, even when conditions look uncertain. Once they do, their peers take notice, and that subtle peer pressure reignites the next buying wave. It’s a pattern that’s repeated for decades. Government programs may encourage renting, but family and peer milestones often push the opposite direction. Over time, this social effect reinforces the ownership culture that defines cities like Markham.


Today, Canada’s homeownership rate has already slipped from about 69% to 66%, and is likely to decline further. That doesn’t mean fewer homes are being bought, it means ownership is concentrating. Households with the means and conviction to act are securing more real estate, while those waiting for the “perfect time” risk being priced out entirely. For middle-class families on the edge, hesitation can become permanent.


So, is the housing dividend really over? For some households that missed their moment, perhaps it feels that way. But for Markham as a whole, the answer is no. As long as money supply grows, immigration remains strong, and families continue to prioritize stability, real estate will keep moving through its familiar cycle of contraction and renewal. The form may change to smaller homes, multi-generational living, more condos, but the underlying demand isn’t going anywhere.


The most practical takeaway is this: rather than waiting for certainty, plan for alignment. Align your personal timeline with where the market is in its cycle. Understand your financing, know your thresholds, and position yourself so that when opportunity appears, as it always does, you can act decisively. In Markham’s market, hesitation has a cost, but preparation has a reward.



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