Markham Housing Forecast for 2026: Slow for Now, Watch for a Turn

Markham Housing Forecast for 2026: Slow for Now, Watch for a Turn

Despite all the negative headlines, Canada's financial markets have shown surprising resilience this year. Even with the uncertainty around Trump's tariff threats and the broader global economic concerns, Bay Street still managed to raise $310 billion in the first half of 2025, the third-highest total in over a decade. That level of strength signals that investors continue to see opportunity on the horizon. So what does this mean for the Markham housing market as we look ahead to 2026?


Right now, it's clear the market is moving slowly, but also that it's very segmented. Detached homes in Markham are sitting at around 4.7 months of inventory, and in the past three months, only 1 in 3 listings has sold. Attached homes are slightly softer, with 5.6 MOI and a similar sold rate. Condo townhouses are even weaker, 8.6 MOI, and only 1 in 4 listings are moving. Prices have dropped about 20% from the peak in 2022, but the overall composite price is still holding steady compared to mid-2021. In fact, we're still about 6% above the peak in 2017 when the foreign buyer tax was introduced in Ontario.


If you look closely at the data, each segment is reacting differently to market changes. For example, detached and attached home sales started slowing in June, but condo apartments began their dip back in April, right around the time Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs. That's not a coincidence. It shows that the condo segment is more sensitive to economic uncertainty, likely because that market is more exposed to first-time buyers and investors who are quicker to pull back.


Summer is usually a slower season for real estate, and this year follows that same pattern. With less urgency in the air, many buyers are sitting back and watching the market. As we move toward the fall, it's likely that some sellers will reduce their prices, especially those who need to make a move. But in Markham, a large number of homeowners are in strong financial shape. Most aren't under pressure to sell and won't list unless they believe the price is right. That stability is a key reason why we're unlikely to see prices continue falling in any significant way.


There's one key development that could improve confidence. Canada is expected to finalize a trade deal with the U.S. by the end of July. Even if there are compromises, the fact that there's a deal would remove a major source of uncertainty. That alone could stabilize sentiment and help the market feel less shaky.


Looking ahead to September, there's a good chance we'll see an interest rate cut. Lower borrowing costs could help boost buyer activity, especially for those who have been sitting on the sidelines due to affordability. But one rate cut won't be enough to turn the market on its own. Prices are still high for many local families, and for those wanting to upgrade from a condo to a detached home, they first need to sell, which isn't easy with rising condo inventory.


Speaking of inventory, 2026 will see more than 20,000 condo units completed across the GTA. That wave of supply will likely keep condo prices under pressure, and if move-up buyers can't make that leap, it'll hold the broader market back. It's a chain reaction, if condos don't sell, people can't move up, and that slows down sales in the higher-end segments too.


But 2027 could look very different. New condo completions are expected to drop significantly, and there's growing talk that the government may reassess the foreign buyer ban. If the ban is lifted, and if Ontario also lowers the foreign buyer tax, we could see a resurgence of demand, especially from international investors. That could be the push the market needs after a few cautious years.


For now, the Markham market is slow but stable. Sellers aren't panicking, and buyers are taking their time. But with more certainty on the horizon, and potentially lower rates, the groundwork is being laid for a more active market in the not-so-distant future.



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