How School Enrolment Trends Reveal the Future of Markham Real Estate

How School Enrolment Trends Reveal the Future of Markham Real Estate

Markham has always been a top choice for families, especially those who value strong schools and safe communities. But something is shifting beneath the surface. For the first time in over three decades, the York Region District School Board (YRDSB) is seeing a drop in student enrolment, and that says a lot about where families are headed and what it could mean for real estate across Markham.

YRDSB expects about 127,786 students in the upcoming 2025–2026 school year, nearly 1,900 fewer than last year. Among them are 374 fewer international students. On paper, it might sound like just a school board issue, but the reasons behind the drop point directly to the housing market. Rising home prices, lower birth rates, and stricter immigration policy are all playing a role. Put simply, it’s becoming harder for young families to settle down here.

But not all neighbourhoods are affected the same way. In places like Unionville and Markville, enrolment may hold steadier thanks to the growing number of condo developments nearby. These high-rise buildings are generally more affordable than low-rise homes, making them attractive to young families. As a result, they help bring in a steady stream of students and allow local schools to maintain their staffing levels. That’s a big plus, when schools remain well-supported, the surrounding housing market usually stays strong too.

Compare that to areas with top-ranked schools like Pierre Elliott Trudeau High School or Bur Oak Secondary School, where the landscape is dominated by low-rise, higher-priced homes. These neighbourhoods haven’t seen as much new development, especially on the more affordable end. With fewer young families moving in, enrolment may gradually decline, and without new students to offset the drop, these schools could face staff reductions, fewer programs, and a potential dip in the overall student experience. It’s the kind of subtle shift that both homebuyers and investors keep an eye on when evaluating long-term value in a neighbourhood.

You can really see the difference when you look at St. Robert Catholic High School. It serves a wide catchment area and is located near a dense cluster of condos just south of Highway 7, between Leslie and Bayview. This concentration of high-rise residences brings in a steady stream of students, helping the school maintain strong staffing levels and a broad range of programs. It’s a clear example of how condo growth can directly support school stability, and in turn, help preserve surrounding property values.

If you’re buying in Markham, or just trying to understand what’s next, it’s worth paying attention to this trend. It's no longer just about which schools have the best test scores today. It’s about which neighbourhoods are still attracting young families and which ones are positioned for long-term stability. Areas near new condo developments may have an edge, especially if school enrolment levels remain strong. In contrast, neighbourhoods without new housing growth could feel the pressure over time.

At the end of the day, schools tell a bigger story. Behind each enrolment number is a reflection of affordability, policy, and who can call Markham home. For buyers and sellers alike, it’s another reminder that real estate is always about more than just bricks and mortar, it’s about the people and families behind each door.



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